A Non-Peaceful Settlement: Why the War in Syria Doesn't End

05.12.2021 20:22

A Non-Peaceful Settlement: Why the War in Syria Doesn't End
Photo: Christiaan Triebert / flickr.com

Multi-factor conflict

Peaceful settlement after such a long and bloody war is a very difficult process. Moreover, if this is a war in the Middle East and if several major players are involved in it at once. In the Syrian stories At first glance, everything seems quite optimistic - most of the country is under the control of the army of Bashar al-Assad. Only in northeastern Syria has a complex cocktail formed from the opposition Syrian National Army, terrorists, Turkish forces, Americans and Kurds.

It would seem that refugees should return to the territories liberated with the help of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In Lebanon and Turkey alone, there are at least five million people displaced from war-torn Syria. However, everything remains in place. The world talked about in the liberated territories is too shaky.

Among refugees, there are stories of atrocities taking place in the territories controlled by Damascus - robberies, abductions and human trafficking. People are afraid that with an unexpected exit from the conflict by one of the parties - the United States, Turkey or Russia - the situation may change dramatically, and they will again be forced to look for a new home. The ruins left in their homeland are not much better than the conditions in refugee camps in neighboring states.

Each hopeful news the end of the war invariably ends with either a tragedy or another failure of government forces. First of all, hopes were pinned on the Syrian Constitutional Committee, within the framework of which the issue of a mutual peaceful resolution of the war is being considered. Taking into account the views and interests of the opposition and the government, of course.

The key controversy unfolded around the Syrian constitution.

The opposition demands a completely new basic law, while official Damascus insists on making adjustments to the 2012 version. At the request of Turkey, the Kurds were not included in the committee at all, which also does not contribute at all to a peaceful settlement. As a result, the last - sixth - meeting of the constitutional committee on October 22 in Geneva ended in nothing.

A significant role in this was played by the terrible explosion on October 20 in Damascus, which claimed the lives of 20 Syrian soldiers.

It was the largest terrorist attack in the past 4 years, and at the same time thundered near the hotel, where the Russian delegation often stops. The organizers tried to achieve two goals at once - to intimidate Russia and prevent a peaceful settlement in Geneva. At least one thing was influenced, and the delegates to the constitutional committee left Switzerland without even agreeing on the next round of negotiations. The terrorist attack was also exposed by the inability of Assad's special services to control the situation in the Syrian capital. Further escalation of the terrorist threat could be costly for the supporters of a peaceful settlement of the war in Syria.

However, are there many of these same supporters?

And is Bashar al-Assad himself ready to put up with the opposition on the terms dictated by Moscow and Iran?

The answer is not so obvious.

Assad comes out of isolation

There are no friends in the East, but only temporary or forced allies. It seems that Damascus is quite satisfied with the current status quo and is ready to diversify its foreign policy. In a sense, to slightly move the interests of Russia and Iran, without which the return of Syrian territory to the government would be impossible.

This is facilitated by a favorable diplomatic climate. Despite the fact that the country is under tough US sanctions in the form of the Syrian Civilian Protection Act, Damascus officials manage to establish diplomatic contacts. So, in early September 2021, the Syrians were invited to Amman for quadrilateral talks with Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. The topic was economic aid to Beirut, which, by the way, has sheltered at least 2 million Syrian refugees.

Further more. The United Arab Emirates, from the very beginning of the war, opposed the Assad regime, unexpectedly offered to invest in the restoration of the republic and opened an office in Damascus. Everything leads to the fact that the diplomatic isolation of Syria is gradually weakening, at least from the Arab countries. Already Abdullah II, the Jordanian king, who has hosted the opponents of Assad for many years, held telephone talks with the Syrian leader.

Contacts between the two countries are also observed at the level of defense ministers. The state airline Royal Jordanian resumed flights to the Syrian capital after a break. The Arab League, in turn, is ready to return Bashar al-Assad to the negotiating table on partnership terms - Egypt, Oman, Tunisia, Algeria and the Arab Emirates agree with this.

So far, only Saudi Arabia is dissatisfied with silence, but it will eventually agree with the opinion of the majority. If nothing extraordinary happens, then at the beginning of next year the next League summit will be held with the participation of the Syrian government.

Moreover, in the middle of this year there were rumors that Bashar al-Assad was ready for "separate" negotiations with the American government. Later, the media was quick to refute the information, citing rumors spread by opponents of the authorities. However, many analysts see attempts to establish a dialogue with the third players in history, behind the backs of Tehran and Moscow, quite understandable. First of all, because of Damascus' reluctance to resolve the issue peacefully, to which the Iranians and Russians are pushing it. Conciliation on the conditions of the constitutional committee, according to Damascus, does not make much sense - the opposition is kept on its feet solely due to Turkish aid.

Northeastern Syria

The stumbling block of the Syrian conflict is the situation in the north-east of the country, in which the Americans, Turks, Kurds and the Syrian opposition clashed among themselves.

The United States supports the Kurds as it wishes, and Turkey, in turn, is trying to prevent the formation of Kurdistan on its borders. At the same time, the Joe Biden administration is ready to leave Syria, but the Kurdish problem does not allow this so far. The American administration already has a shameful case of fleeing from Afghanistan, and it will be completely superfluous to add the abandoned Kurds to the karma.

At the same time, the Kurds are not ready for close cooperation with Russia. According to Ilham Ahmed, chairman of the executive committee of the Syrian Democratic Council, the Kurds rejected a Russian offer to deploy 3 troops in Kobani in exchange for returning the area to Damascus jurisdiction. The fears of the kudras are connected with the prospect of complete control on the part of Bashar al-Assad, under which there can be no question of any autonomy.

Peaceful settlement in Syria is quite possible in the next year or even several months. Only now it is necessary to remove all external forces - the United States, Turkey and Russia.

Bashar al-Assad is now quite capable of regaining control of 100% of the territory, but the behavior of the army and special services will be slightly different from the situation a decade ago. Without external power control, Damascus may well arrange a large-scale retaliation, including for those who return to their homeland.

Few believe that the interests of the Kurds and the moderate opposition will be taken into account. Therefore, the difficult military-diplomatic game in the Middle East will continue for more than one year.

And at this time, in Syria itself and its environs, a generation will grow up that has not seen either a peaceful life, or even a minimal education. What kind of social explosion this threatens in the future, one can only guess.