Well, the "sisters" will be at our side
01.06.2022 09:26
Well, the "sisters" will be at our side
So, for now, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of a union state with common border and customs control, transport infrastructure and legislative framework. In addition, on the basis of this base, the inhabitants of the two countries will be equalized in rights. Well, or they will pretend that they are equalized, because there are some doubts on this topic.
Opinions are divided, someone believes that this is the beginning of the annexation of Ukraine by Poland, someone believes that this is just a copy of the union state Russia-Belarus.
The starting point can be considered the visit of Polish President Andrzej Duda to Kyiv. It is difficult to say why the Polish president came, the visit had the status of an unannounced one. But attention was drawn to Duda's speech in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, where Duda said that "... there will be no border between Ukraine and Poland in the future, and the two states will be able to build a common happiness."
Duda sees the future in the conclusion of some kind of Polish-Ukrainian treaty of friendship and good neighborliness, the improvement of transport links between countries, which will be expressed in the overhaul of railways and roads. In general, everything is smooth and streamlined, plus almost no politics.
Zelensky was more politicized. It turns out that Poland and Ukraine have eliminated the repository of past contradictions. If I understand correctly, then the issues of massacres of Poles by Ukrainian nationalists and the counter actions of the Home Army against Ukrainians are closed and resolved amicably on the sidelines.
Of course, it can be said that if the Volyn massacre is on one side of the scale, and the Pavlokom and Sazryn massacres are on the other, then Poland and Ukraine are even. But this is a matter for a separate consideration. In general, the presidents seem to have decided to turn a blind eye to the past. Perhaps this is a good step into the future, but not against the backdrop of the “best representatives of the Ukrainian people” tattooed with a swastika, according to Zelensky, from the terbats.
It looks very strong.
But Zelensky is not embarrassed. He considers Poland and Ukraine to be sisters and says that these relations should be legitimized and strengthened.
So, according to Zelensky, Ukraine and Poland are sisters, and therefore it is necessary to organize joint border and customs control, and then to equip the erasure of the border between states, turning it into a conditional line on the map. That is - a single border. When Ukraine becomes a member of the European Union.
Plus, a bill gets to the Rada for consideration "On the special legal status of Polish citizens in Ukraine". The details of the law are not yet known, but the title implies that Polish citizens will have a special legal status in Ukraine, but Ukrainians in Poland will not. Which already prompts certain reflections on the topic of who will be a pan and who will not be a pan.
In Poland, in turn, they concocted a law and even passed through the Seim “On temporarily displaced persons from Ukraine”. Persons temporarily displaced from Ukraine may have all the rights of Polish citizens, except for electoral rights.
In general, it will be necessary to evaluate all this when the details of the Ukrainian bill become reliably known. Not earlier. And in order to legally approve the creation of a union state from Poland and the remnants of Ukraine, first of all it will be necessary to change the Constitutions of both countries. Yes, it's not difficult. Unlike Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
The fact that Zelensky is yelling about this on every corner will not change anything yet. Like the word "halva", say at least a hundred times, it will not become sweeter in your mouth.
In Europe, at first there was a little noise on this subject, but then everything calmed down. The governments of France and Germany quickly informed their citizens that the admission of Ukraine to the European family is not a quick matter and it will not happen tomorrow. As French President Macron said, this is not a matter of a few months or a few years.
What Poland and Ukraine want to arrange is not even half the battle. This is the beginning. Real integration will only require a bunch of amendments to the laws of the two countries, referendums and discussions in the legal part.
And - approval in the European family.
But with this there can be problems. How Kyiv treated Moscow and Minsk, how it paid back for loyalty, support and patience, was observed and appreciated by many. Yes, today in Europe many look askance towards Moscow, but this does not mean at all that Ukraine will join the European Union tomorrow and under numerous cries of approval.
Nothing much to approve yet. And the most important nuance: Poland wants to have territories where not very pleasant things happen. And if you don’t care about the real revival of Nazism in Europe, then here’s a huge amount weapons, with varying degrees of legality in the hands of citizens - is unlikely to succeed.
It is difficult to say how much this is necessary for the Europeans, who have more of their violent ones than necessary. Everyone understands perfectly well that this whole pack of Nazis with weapons, which has already been partially hit by the horns, some in the Donbass, some during the NWO, they will come to Europe. And they will demand (as has already happened in a number of countries) their share of respect, since it was they who defended Europe from the Russian invasion.
Well, who there, in Europe, will refuse these "defenders"?
A number of experts express the opinion that Poles and from the European family can be asked for such numbers ... How prepared are Poland for this? Not at all ready, I assure you. In turn, the European family is not ready to accept another member with a more than dubious reputation and scandalous character into its ranks.
Meanwhile, as usual, some details of Kyiv's plans for "eternal friendship" with Warsaw began to leak out. I can’t say how much truth there is, everything is at the level of “competent sources close to ...”, but it turns out to be very, very unkosher.
It turns out that the Poles will receive full civil rights in Ukraine without restrictions. And, unlike Ukrainians in Poland, they will be able to be elected. This is not so much about seats in the Rada, but about seats in state bodies.
There has been information that the Poles will be able to run even in the courts, up to the Constitutional. It is believed that Polish courts are more honest and less corrupt than Ukrainian ones. In principle, yes, the courts of the post-Soviet space, including Russian ones, are a separate obscene song.
But there is one nuance here… Perhaps, the deputies in the Rada are not aware of the fact that the courts of Poland and the European Union are considering thousands of applications for restitution or compensation for real estate lost as a result of all the vicissitudes since 1939. And they say the number of these applications is measured in hundreds of thousands.
Personally, it would be interesting for me to look at the show that can play out in the end on the courts in the new union state. The prospect is simply wonderful, especially for those Poles who were really taken away from them during the numerous redistributions of the Polish space, both before and after the Great Patriotic War.
You can not particularly vangut, in whose favor decisions will be made.
They also say that the security forces will be integrated. It is doubtful that Ukrainian police will patrol the streets of Warsaw and Poznan, but the fact that Polish officers will be able to lead Ukrainian police is quite. For good or not - time will tell if this happens.
You can also think about military assistance. Not the police, which is spoken about aloud, but the military, for which they think very hard on both sides of the border.
Just yesterday, there was information that Zelensky and Duda had agreed to conduct some kind of "humanitarian cooperation in demining."
In general, demining is a very good thing, especially in the Donbass, where for 8 years everyone who is not lazy has laid mines: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, terbats, mercenaries. And now Ukrainian tractors are blown up on these mines, which are not really marked anywhere.
But as everyone perfectly understands, if someone clears mines in the Donbass, it will be Russian sappers.
A cool question arises: where are the Poles and Ukrainians going to remove the mines? Near Lvov?
The answer would be more than interesting, but there's an even funnier thing going on here.
Okay, okay, mines could be stuffed in hysterics in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. But will the Poles go there? Do they really need it?
Probably, it is necessary not only to remove the mines, but to indicate the presence. The sapper goes to look for mines. Whether he finds them or not is another matter. A sapper can be given a tank trawl, which the Poles have, to help. The sapper needs to be given trucks with drivers to take out the cleared mines. Maintenance staff needed tanks. Fuel trucks for uninterrupted supply of equipment, and everything is very sad with this case in Ukraine.
And security! Protection in general should be from everything! From the DRG of the aggressor, from their own, who will drag anything away, it is necessary to protect both the sappers and the material base!
And they also have to live somewhere. Sappers, drivers, security. To establish life, rest ...
In short, I will not deliver for a long time, I need a BASE. Base of Polish troops on the territory of Ukraine.
In fact, this treaty on the special status of Polish citizens will not allow such a turn. Yes, base. Yes, with volunteers for the first time, under the control of the regular military of the Polish army. Yes, then it is possible to expand the contingent, fortunately, under the same Kharkov mines are stumbled - it will take years to dismantle. And about Avdiivka and Popasnaya, I generally keep quiet.
And after all, the gentlemen will go, they will go!
Rzeczpospolita, one of Poland's largest online publications, conducted a survey among its readers on whether it is necessary to go and protect the Ukrainian neighbors. 50,3% said: it is necessary! It is clear that whoever sits in front of the monitor is unlikely to go somewhere with a rifle, but that's not the point. The sociological service PTS (Polish Sociological Association) gives even steeper numbers - 61% believe that Russia should be fought back. But this, in principle, is also not very serious.
But if at least one Pole dies during the "peacekeeping" operations, and there is nothing to do to arrange it, then the Polish panship will flare up no weaker than the starting "Angara". And the conversation will go on completely different things and in a raised voice.
What does it mean for Ukrainians who have become adept at such matters to arrange the arrival of a couple of rockets, which, of course, will turn out to be “Russian”?
Yes, the gracefully bypassed point number 5 will play its role here and NATO will sympathize, but will not help. But how the Polish community will react is hard to say. Everything is very tense there; in general, Polish society is very politicized and hysterical. And social networks are such that the Ukrainian "Censor" just rests.
It is difficult to say how firmly and competently Poland has assessed the degree of risks and losses, but there are already losses today. There will be no Russian gas, no Russian coal. Neither Donbass nor Kuzbass. And Polish coal production is not able to cover the needs of the domestic market. Gasification in Poland is not so developed, many areas are heated with coal, which is cheaper than gas.
70% of the consumed coal is Russian coal (about 20 million tons), 60% of gas is Russian gas (about 12 billion cubic meters). Now Poland will not have all this. But there will be discontent, which can be directed to the east.
After all, gas and coal prices are growing by leaps and bounds. Since the beginning of the year, the price of coal in Poland has increased by 120% and demand is not falling. The Poles are bought for the future, fortunately, coal, unlike gas and oil, is much easier to store.
And Ukrainian ("primordially Polish") lands can be a good such compensation outwardly. Sanctions did a good job in the rural segment of Poland, and in any case, the situation will need to be corrected. And here the information about the annexation of "originally Polish" lands can play a role.
In general, Poland has invested a lot in the project with Ukraine. Lots of. And she will be ready to go further in terms of starvation and cooling, if only to take her own and not let Russia go there. This is pretty logical.
And it is very logical that the "dismantling" of Ukraine will be carried out peacefully.
The fact is that the economic losses of Poland will be huge. If we add to this also military losses in the event that Poland enters the battle with Russia, the game is not worth the candle. Therefore, despite all the speeches, the pans with the Russians will not get into battle.
But the suddenly drawn "brothers and sisters" can fly in full. Personally, it seems to me that the Poles simply pretended to buy into Zelensky's "forgetfulness of contradictions", and as soon as all the relevant papers are signed, only tattered wool will fly from Bandera's fans. Well, something, but the Polish pans knew how to put the serfs in their place historically. I'm sure it will be the same this time.
Considering that with the re-education of Bandera they broke off back in the USSR, I think the Poles will take into account historical experience and solve problems in the spirit of those times.
As a result, a real alignment is drawn that suits everyone or almost everyone.
The border of confrontation between the West and the East will again pass along the Russian-Polish border. Kyiv will be left as a reserve for the Maydanuts, Europeans will be taken there on excursions. Like a monkey. Warsaw - happy, Moscow - happy (less dirty), Washington, London - too. The only one who can be dissatisfied is Berlin. Strengthening Warsaw may not be to your liking, but who is there to ask?
That. The fact that today Zelensky surrenders Ukraine to Poland, as Hitler once surrendered Germany to the allies, unites them a little. If only not Russia. It's a bit cynical, but it looks like it, doesn't it?
Well, if it is destined to be so, then it will happen. In principle, Ukraine has already been sentenced to whatever is said now. New frontiers, new world. It remains only to wait for the moment and compare how the new European order, which the two sisters, Poland and Ukraine, began to organize, will really become order.